Are we underestimating the threat of solar storms? A ‘once-in-a-thousand-year’ disaster is worth considering, scientists say

The most powerful solar storms to strike Earth may pack a bigger punch than scientists realized, according to a new study that suggests the impacts of extreme space weather have been underestimated.

Researchers found evidence that the apparent upper limit on Earth’s response to the strongest solar storms may be an artifact of how solar wind has been measured rather than a true physical ceiling. If confirmed, the findings suggest that rare “once-in-a-thousand-year” geomagnetic storms could have a greater impact on modern technology than current estimates indicate, according to a statement.

“Our planet’s magnetic field does a really great job of protecting us against many space weather effects and so they often just show up as glitches or beautiful aurora,” Maria Walach, co-author of the study from Lancaster University, said in the statement. “There are however extreme cases.”

Solar storms occur when eruptions from the sun, such as coronal mass ejections and solar flares, send clouds of charged particles hurtling toward Earth. While they can produce spectacular auroras, they can also disrupt satellites, GPS, radio communications and power grids.

History has shown the damage even less extreme storms can cause. The 1859 Carrington Event, the strongest geomagnetic storm on record, disrupted telegraph systems around the world and pushed auroras from their usual high-latitude skies near the Arctic and Antarctic to locations as far south as the tropics. Another powerful storm in 1989 collapsed Quebec’s power grid, leaving millions without electricity, while the 2003 “Halloween storms” disrupted satellites, GPS and radio communications.

While the study doesn’t suggest that an unprecedented solar storm is imminent, it argues that scientists may need to rethink how they estimate the severity of the rarest events — an increasingly important challenge as modern society grows more dependent on satellites and other vulnerable technologies.

The researchers traced the apparent upper limit to where most solar wind measurements are collected. Many observations of extreme events come from spacecraft near the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point 1 (L1), about 1 million miles (1.5 million kilometers) upstream of Earth. Because the strongest solar wind tends to weaken somewhat before reaching Earth, comparing L1 measurements with conditions at our planet can make it appear that Earth’s upper atmosphere stops responding to increasingly intense solar wind, even when it does not.

To test that idea, the team analyzed more than one million solar wind measurements collected by NASA spacecraft orbiting much closer to Earth, where the solar wind directly interacts with our planet’s magnetic field. Those observations showed that electrical currents flowing through Earth’s upper atmosphere continued to increase alongside stronger solar wind, with no sign of the previously assumed upper limit. The results suggest that exceptionally powerful solar storms could generate stronger geomagnetic disturbances — and greater impacts on satellites, communications systems and power grids — than earlier estimates predicted.

“Fortunately, these very extreme cases are rare, but this also means we have limited data to work with and only time will tell what happens at the very extreme one-in-a-thousand-year kind of event,” Walach said in the statement.

The study comes as the sun remains near the peak of its roughly 11-year solar cycle, known as solar maximum, when sunspots, solar flares and coronal mass ejections become more frequent. During the current cycle, strong geomagnetic storms have repeatedly sent auroras far beyond their usual polar skies.

In May 2024, the strongest geomagnetic storm in more than two decades illuminated skies across much of the United States and Europe while causing intermittent disruptions to high-frequency radio communications, GPS-guided equipment and some satellite operations. Although significant, that event was far less powerful than the Carrington Event — or the even rarer storms the new study suggests may be possible.

The findings were published July 15 in the journal Nature.