Republican strategist on how Trump’s personal grievances could affect the GOP

MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:

Rina Shah has been listening with us. She is a political strategist with experience as a GOP congressional adviser. Good morning, Rina.

RINA SHAH: Hi. Good morning.

MARTIN: So Mara mentioned the president’s complaints, and in some cases, moves against people like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook, the media, the government of Norway. Is – does any of that motivate voters at this point, either in his base or independents?

SHAH: Well, I think it’s really important to see what this really is. The diesel deal and the energy ceasefire announcement, I believe, are less about immediate relief and more about creating a permission structure for Republican candidates. The volumes are really too small to meaningfully move prices before November 3. I think most analysts are saying that plainly, and most of us kind of get that.

But the move lets candidates say that the president is trying something on cost instead of doing nothing. And that’s really the narrow political utility here. The risk is that Zelenskyy’s criticism and then the lack of clear details on the ceasefire turn it into another foreign policy story that down-ballot Republicans then have to explain rather than use.

MARTIN: But also it doesn’t work. It doesn’t seem to be working. He’s saying one thing, and the facts prove to be otherwise. And to that end, you know, the president’s defending – he’s aggressively defended his decision to launch trade wars with much of the world, his military war with Iran. Those are both things that have raised prices for Americans. The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll indicates that independent voters favor Democrats by 19 points on the economy. So the question is, you’re saying, even if it creates a permission structure, does that – is that enough?

SHAH: Well, look, let’s look at the broader midterm picture here. Trump is running the same play he always has – make every race about himself and then bet that his base’s intensity outweighs his approval numbers, which we know are pretty dismal. The difference this cycle is that the grievances that are driving a lot of the White House’s agenda – which are media fights, the Department of Justice’s action against people from the first term, his personal score-settling – those are more self-generated than they were in 2016 or ’18. Back then, a larger share of what he amplified tracked the existing voter frustration.

Now more of it originates from inside the administration, and it’s getting projected outward, and that really changes the utility for candidates. It motivates the core base, but it doesn’t give swing voters a new reason to show up when their main concern is still the price of diesel and groceries. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention here the practical problem for Republicans in these next three weeks, and it’s that there is not a clean off-ramp for them. Candidates in really tight races would prefer a more narrow message on things like border enforcement and costs, and the White House is not structured at all to deliver that.

Trump treats the midterms as an extension of his own presidency rather than a set of local races, which is really unusual, even by our modern standards. Presidents have always campaigned, but they have rarely, rarely made themselves the constant central character this late while the party is trailing on the economy. And what that does is forces candidates to either fully nationalize their races or spend time creating distance, and neither of which is ideal with three weeks left.

MARTIN: Sure. So if the president can’t or won’t focus his message on what voters care about right now, and if there doesn’t seem to be anybody in the president’s circle who can get him to do that, is there anything that congressional candidates can do?

SHAH: Oh, that is the question du jour. Look, three weeks out, it’s very hard for anyone to redirect him. He sets the agenda. The people closest to him can sometimes influence timing or emphasis on a particular issue like prices, but they rarely change his overall focus or stop him from going where he wants to go. At this point in the midterm cycle, I think the political reality of the map and the polls can sometimes force a more narrow message. But that’s really different, again, from someone inside Trump world circle – they’re successfully shifting him.

I would say this – look, if the polls are right and Republicans are trailing on the broad economy or the cost-of-living question, the other issues that can still drive their turnout are the border and public safety. Those have consistently been stronger for Republicans in recent cycles, and they give candidates a concrete contrast – things like enforcement, resources and results, versus what they argue has been a more permissive Democratic policy.

MARTIN: OK, before we let you go through…

SHAH: Also energy domestic production.

MARTIN: Thirty seconds left, though. Republicans…

SHAH: Sure

MARTIN: …A big campaign bank. Republicans are outspending Democrats in these final weeks. Do they have – is that enough to erase some of these Democratic advantages that we’re seeing in the polls?

SHAH: Truly, I don’t believe so. I think right now, what we’re looking at is a real downside because what’s emanating from the White House has created that. The downside here to Trump’s strategy so far is that it’s locked the midterms into a pure referendum on him. And look, by inserting himself constantly and tying every race to his record and grievances, he’s made it really hard for vulnerable Republicans to run as independent of Washington. And in a cycle where his approval is low and prices remain high, that nationalizes races in a way that often favors the out-party…

MARTIN: OK.

SHAH: …Which is the Democrats.

MARTIN: That is Republican political strategist Rina Shah. Rina, thanks.

SHAH: Thank you.

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