After President Trump slapped down reports that he is considered renewed strikes against Iran ahead of the midterms, the politics of the war he started are in the spotlight.
After President Trump slapped down reports that he is considered renewed strikes against Iran ahead of the midterms, the politics of the war he started are in the spotlight.
After President Trump slapped down reports that he is considered renewed strikes against Iran ahead of the midterms, the politics of the war he started are in the spotlight.
Transcript
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
President Trump made an announcement about the war in Iran on social media.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
He explicitly linked the unpopular war to the midterm elections. And this is a quote. “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3.” Unquote. OK, why do that? Apparently, to refute reports that the White House is considering airstrikes against Iran before Election Day.
INSKEEP: OK. So the president is making this explicit connection between his decisions on a war involving the United States and his political fortunes at home. So let’s bring in an expert on politics, NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro. Good morning.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey there, Steve.
INSKEEP: OK, what is notable about this post?
MONTANARO: I mean, it’s a little surprising that any president at war would want to tip their hand in either direction and make any kind of declarative promise pledging not to strike. You know, if we asked at the Pentagon or White House – are you going to strike before the election? – we’d be chided for asking such a silly question because…
INSKEEP: Yes.
MONTANARO: …They’re not going to tell us in the media, right? But Trump doing this is a very clear sign that he knows this war has been bad for his party politically ahead of these midterms. The reality is more strikes and further engagement, it’s a tough sell for an American audience, including for many in Trump’s base. I mean, Trump explicitly promised to not get into foreign entanglements.
He even said in his inaugural that his presidency might be measured by the wars he didn’t get into. You know, prolonged unpopular wars, we know, can be and have been dangerous for any president and his party. Think about Iraq, Vietnam, Korea. And all of that’s heightened even more in October of an election year when the president’s already unpopular, the cost of living and gas prices are putting Republicans on their back foot across the country.
INSKEEP: Yeah, so I’m thinking this through. The president says don’t worry about the war. I’m not going to remind you about the war until you vote for my party, and then maybe I’ll resume the war after I get your vote. I mean, that seems to be the message here. But I was just out interviewing voters in the last few days, Domenico. They seem to be aware that there is a war on.
MONTANARO: You know, this war is very unpopular if you look at public opinion. A recent AP-NORC poll, for example, found that 7 in 10 disapprove of how Trump is handling the war. And they say the war has not been worth fighting. Trump argues that it is worth it because he doesn’t want Iran to have a nuclear weapon, though his rationale for this war certainly shifted quite a bit from the beginning of it. And it’s hard to believe that this has been going on since February, much longer than promised. And historically in this country, wars that have dragged on have become major political problems for presidents.
INSKEEP: I guess we should note also the president has said he is thinking the Iranians will be willing to settle with him after the midterms. So maybe he’s hoping not to have to strike at all. But doesn’t he face a historic problem here in terms of the popularity of this thing?
MONTANARO: Yeah, he is. I mean, you know, I wrote about this back in March a few weeks after the war in Iran started, right after Trump had declared, quote, “we won.” Back then, there had been no real rally around the flag effect, as it’s known in polling when the country unifies and a president benefits, like when a country’s attacked and the country feels compelled to respond. But this was a war of choice. And Americans have been war-weary from decades in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.
When all this started, Trump’s approval rating was sitting at 48% in an average of the polls. Now it’s down to 37%. You know, it’s a similar drop to what we saw, frankly, for President Biden after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. And he never really recovered, especially as he was also dealing with a difficult economy.
INSKEEP: So what does this mean for the elections that are underway in some places?
MONTANARO: Yeah, it’s not great for Trump and the Republican Party. That’s why you’ve seen several Republicans distancing themselves from the war and the president’s policies in recent weeks. Most Republicans I talk to can see that they’re probably going to lose the House majority. And they’re trying to hang onto a majority in the Senate, having to be on defense in a lot of red states, which they never thought would be the case when this cycle started.
INSKEEP: It’s just amazing to think about an election that could be decided in Kansas or Iowa or Texas.
MONTANARO: Exactly.
INSKEEP: Domenico, thanks so much.
MONTANARO: You’re welcome.
INSKEEP: That’s NPR’s Domenico Montanaro.
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