2-year Treasury yield jumps as Warsh says Fed may ‘have work to do’

Treasury yields at the short end of the curve spiked while those on the long end edged lower after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said in a keynote address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming that the central bank still has “work to do” to bring inflation under control.

The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to policy expectations, jumped 12 basis points at 4.352%.

The 30-year bond yield, a key gauge for longer-term borrowing costs that has climbed sharply in recent weeks, was more than 1 basis point higher at 5.207%.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up more than 5 basis points at 4.726%. One basis point equals 0.01%. Bond prices move inversely to yields.

Short-term Treasury yields pushed higher after Warsh acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, saying, “While this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”

He added, “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job … our mandate … and our charge to keep.”

The hawkish stance raised expectations of an interest rate hike coming in September, with odds rising to 57.5%, up from 35.4% one day ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Warsh’s speech appeared to offer some reassurance to bond investors after the recent sell-off in longer-dated Treasurys, especially in the 30-year bond yield that’s near multi-decade highs.

“Overall, it was a deliberately hawkish speech that will put to rest any concerns about the Fed’s willingness to raise rates to restore price stability,” wrote Vail Hartman, BMO U.S. rates strategist.